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Wet Australia warned of dry-weather El Nino

Drought conditions can be devastating for Australian farmers. - ABC

Meteorologists say Australia appears to be returning to the dry-weather El Nino climate pattern.

The alternative La Nina weather patterns have caused higher than average rainfall across northern and eastern Australia over the past two years.

El Nino patterns bring drier and hotter conditions and can result in drought.

Dr Andrew Watkins, from the Australian Weather Bureau's climate prediction services, says the indicators are not definite yet.

But five of seven models are suggesting an El Nino is likely.

Classic sign

He said: "Over the past several months, we've seen a warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and that's a pretty classic sign of a developing El Nino event.

"And if we continue to see warming we would expect to go into an event some time in the later winter or even the spring."

says most climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain at values near the threshold of an El Nino.

Although indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and trade winds are less El Nino-like than they were a month ago, ocean surface temperatures continue to show a pattern, and in some places values, typical of the development stage of an El Nino.

No climate models suggest a return to La Nina conditions.
During El Nino events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring.

Southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer.


- ABC

© ABC 2012

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