The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting a slightly warmer and wetter winter for Tasmania this year.
The seasonal outlook is for above-average temperatures, especially during the day, mostly because of warm ocean temperatures around the island.
There is also a chance the state will receive above-average rainfall, particularly in the east.
Climate prediction manager Andrew Watkins says the bureau is now using a more sophisticated model for its outlooks.
"The new model is based purely upon physics so it looks at how the oceans and the land and the atmosphere and even the ice down in Antarctica, how they all behave according to the laws of physics and how they all interact," he said.
Mr Watkins says the difference may not be huge.
"When we're talking about above-average temperatures over a long period of time, like a season, we might only be talking say a degree or so - we're not talking about heatwaves and going back to summer."
"It's going to be winter as per normal but the odds are on it being slightly warmer than average."
© ABC 2013
13:15 EDT Research has found climate change could reduce agricultural crop production sooner than had been predicted.