The long dry spell across parts of the Goulburn Murray region could ease this week, with a chance of heavy rainfall in some areas.
Below-average rainfall was recorded in September and October, creating a relatively dry start to spring.
However, a senior forecaster with the weather bureau, Rod Dixon, says a trough in Victoria today could deliver a drenching by mid-week.
"The models aren't agreeing on the exact nature of the heavy rain," he said.
"It may well just clip the far north-east but there is the potential there for falls of up to 40 or 50 millimetres for the Wednesday, depending on the exact location of that rainband."
© ABC 2012
11:06 EDT El Nino is one extreme of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, in which La Nina is its counterpart.