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Ben Domensino, 24 Mar 2017, 12:30 AM UTC

Queensland cyclone threat update

Queensland cyclone threat update
It's looking more likely that a tropical cyclone will cross the Queensland coast in the coming days. We are now getting a better idea about how the situation will unfold, including where and when a coastal crossing might occur. Some of the main questions can start to be answered. Will there be a cyclone? It's likely. There is already a low pressure system over the Coral Sea, about 600km to the east northeast of Cairns this morning. This system is expected to intensify into a cyclone on the weekend as it approaches Queensland. Will it reach the coast? All of the main international forecast models say yes. When will it arrive? Most likely between Sunday night and Tuesday morning, although it could be any time from Sunday to Wednesday at this stage. Where will it cross the coast? Probably between Bowen and Cairns. A number of models indicate that it could be close to Townsville, although it's worth pointing out that cyclones are erratic and it's still too early to know the location of landfall. How bad will the weather be? Outer bands of non-severe shower and thunderstorm activity are already affecting the Queensland coast today. Weather will deteriorate as the system approaches the coast and heavy showers, potentially severe thunderstorms and strong to gale force winds become more likely from Sunday. If a cyclone forms and crosses the coast, weather elements could include destructive to very destructive winds, persistent heavy rain, flooding, severe thunderstorms, large and dangerous surf and coastal inundation. The most severe weather would occur near and to the south of the cyclone's core as it approaches and crosses the coast. However, dangerous conditions could extend hundreds of kilometres other side of this system, particularly to the south. When will it be over? The system will weaken once it moves over land, although the stronger it is at landfall, the longer it will take to weaken. Cyclones typically drop below cyclone intensity within 24-48 hours of landfall. Conditions will start to ease along the coast within a few hours of landfall, although rain and storms could spread through the state's northern and central inland for a few days following landfall. What will it be named? Tropical Cyclone Debbie. This will be the fifth cyclone to form in Australian waters this season. The situation is constantly changing and it is important to keep up to date with the latest information during the days ahead. Cyclone track maps, warning and watches will be available at http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tropicalcyclone.jsp?lt=wzstate&lc=qld&c=track when they are issued. Safety information relating to cyclones is available via the RACQ Get Ready Website at: https://getready.qld.gov.au/natural-disasters/cyclones/
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