Monsoon wavering
Martin Palmer

The tropics are sitting high and mainly dry, as another dry patch looms, soon after long break in February.
During February, the monsoon weakened and left the Top End and the rest of the tropics sitting with an average 20-30% deficit from the monthly mean. However, some places, including Darwin, did manage to creep above average (436mm) as the monsoon rallied at the end of the month.
As is typical, the wet season has seen its ups and downs as fluctuations in the monsoon have ebbed and flowed. Although, with only a month or two left, this one is looking on the drier side of the norm.
Of particular note is the thankful lack of cyclones, helped in part by the large break in the monsoon during February (2006 - the last cyclone-free February). There have also been links with lower cyclone activity and this summer's El Nino event.
Over the next few days the monsoon is showing more signs of weakness. The Inter Tropical Conversion Zone (monsoonal trough) has moved north and storm and shower activity over our tropics will become limited during the weekend.
With a couple of months left of the wet season though, there is still plenty of time for the heavens to make amends.
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