The monsoon trough is strengthening over the north of the Australian continent, bringing an increase in winds, seas and rainfall to the Top End coast. The northern coast of the Top End has seen progressively heavier falls over recent days, with the strengthening of the monsoon trough and the formation of a low pressure centre along this trough-line. Pirlangimpi on Melville Island has been one of the wettest spots, with 81mm falling in the past 24-hours and 152.8mm in total over the last three days. The low pressure centre mentioned earlier is currently located close to Cape Don but is rated at less than a 50% chance of reaching tropical cyclone strength during the next three days. However, a 'Severe Weather Warning' has been issued for northern parts of the Darwin-Daly and Arnhem districts due to the risk of further heavy rainfall and flash flooding due to the strengthening monsoon. Additionally, there is the risk of damaging wind gusts of close to 90km/h in both districts, particularly along the north coast and through the Tiwi Islands. Strengthening northwest winds across the Arafura Sea are expected to whip up large waves along the coast between Cape Don and Groote Eylandt from today. Abnormally high tides can also be expected along this stretch, due to the combination of strong winds blowing onto the coast and lower than usual atmospheric pressure associated with the monsoon trough and low. There is an expectation that the monsoon trough will slip further south over the weekend and weaken a little in the vicinity of the Top End, helping winds to back off a notch. However, moderate to heavy rainfall will still be possible due to a humid flow of winds from the northwest. The monsoon by definition is a seasonal reversal of winds, with moisture-laden northwest winds replacing the drier southeasterly winds seen in the winter months (in the Australian context). The monsoon 'trough' is a region where these humid northwest winds converge with the southeast trade winds located further south over the Australian continent. It is also usually a region where heavier rains and stronger winds are found, as we are seeing at present.