Fairfax Media Network

Weather News

El Nino still on track but coming later

Cath McAloon, Wednesday June 18, 2014 - 10:08 EST
ABC image
The weather bureau says an El Nino, which brings drier conditions to eastern Australia, is likely to develop in spring. - ABC

The weather bureau says an El Nino weather system is now expected to develop in spring, rather than winter as they'd previously forecast.

The latest climate modelling shows warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which defines El Nino activity, has levelled off in recent weeks.

But the weather bureau's manager of climate prediction services, Andrew Watkins, says there's still a 70 per cent likelihood of an El Nino, bringing drier conditions to eastern Australia, this year.

"About half of the models are suggesting an event in place by late winter, early spring, but then the majority of the models say it will be in place sometime later on during the spring," Dr Watkins said.

"The odds sticking at about 70 per cent for an El Nino developing in 2014 hasn't really changed, it's just that things may occur a little later than normal.

"That doesn't necessarily mean that the impacts will come a lot later than normal, we still have been seeing some relatively dry and warm conditions in eastern Australia.


- ABC

© ABC 2014

More breaking news

Sydney Morning Herald
ABC News
National Nine News
News Limited

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Brisbane weather: Month's worth of rain falls over the weekend, more expected today

22:18 EDT

A month's worth of rain has fallen over much of south-east Queensland over the weekend, with residents being warned to brace for another deluge today.

Queensland weather: Torrential rain and winds soak weddings on North Stradbroke Island

17:17 EDT

Getting soaked in the middle of your nuptials is every couple's nightmare when it comes to their big day.

Mango madness: Meet the man teaching Darwin tradies how to beat the build-up heat

15:58 EDT

It's known as "mango madness": the mysterious ailment that descends on the Top End as the build-up of humidity increases, blamed for driving up crime and dragging down morale.