After a brief monsoonal burst of rain at the beginning of January for central parts of the Northern Territory, the Top End continues to miss out on the heavy falls. Although the wet season starts from around October and extends to April, unfavourable antecedent conditions, such as the strong El Nino, have delayed the onset of an active monsoon. Katherine, Nhulunbuy Airport, Tanumbirini have all had their driest January on record, while for Warruwi it was the 2nd driest in 90 years of records. As a ridge develops over the coming week, dry, southeasterly winds will bring less of a chance for rain each day while confining storms to coastal parts of the Top End. Although rainfall in these storms is likely to be heavy, it will be isolated to small pockets, unlike the widespread monsoonal rains that are needed at this time of year. Unfortunately, rainfall anomalies look to be negative for the Top End for the remainder of this month, meaning that an active monsoon may only appear towards the end of the month or into March. Even then, there are little indications of a wetter-than-average end to summer or start of spring.