Rob Sharpe, 25 May 2015, 2:42 AM UTC
Dry season rains heading for the Top End
Top Enders are in for a shock later this week, as areas of rain should arrive one month into the dry season.
The Australian dry season has started quite dry indeed, with no place recording its average May rainfall in the Northern Territory. So far this May, only a handful of NT locations have seen at least 1mm, including Nhulunbuy Airport with 5mm. Darwin hasn't gained 1mm in a day since April 19th.
However, a surprise is looming for those who have stopped watching the weather in the Top End.
A low pressure trough in the Arafura Sea is likely to deepen in the next few days off the NT coast. A low pressure system could even develop within the trough as it starts to edge south towards the mainland.
From Thursday, rain becomes a risk about the far northeast Top End. On Friday the trough or low is likely to influence most of the central and eastern Top End. On the weekend the low and trough should be at its most intense and closest to the Top End, primarily affecting western and central Top End. From Monday the system should start to move away again.
By the start of next week rainfall totals should be in the range of 50-100mm for most coastal communities, with potential for heavy falls above 100mm, just like in the wet season. Inland areas are also a good chance to see significant totals from rain and storms, possibly as heavy as some coastal areas.
At this stage there is still significant model uncertainty surrounding this system and how far south rain will progress. Therefore this week is a good time to keep track of the weather forecast.
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