Max Gonzalez, 29 Oct 2014, 2:12 AM UTC
Are Australians ready for Kate's arrival?
The 2014-2015 Tropical Cyclone (TC) season is upon us with its official start day this Saturday 1st of November a season that will last until the 30th of April 2015.
Due to prevalent El Nino-like conditions across the Pacific Ocean, the forecast is for below-average cyclone numbers this year, where the average number is 11. Usually, not all 11 do cross the coasts with only about four doing so on your average season.
The Australian region is further divided into four regions, mainly:
- The Western region: covering the area west of Perth to 90 degrees East (middle of the Indian Ocean),
- The Northern region: encompassing the Gulf of Carpentaria, the Arafura Sea and the Timor Sea,
- The Eastern region: encompassing the QLD coasts and the Coral Sea.
- The Northwestern region: covering WA's North West Shelf, roughly between the Pilbara and Indonesia.
By far, the Western and North Western regions are the most active seeing five to seven tropical cyclones on average. With four on average per season however, the Eastern region tends to be the most destructive due to the high density population and infrastructure in the eastern seaboard.
An active North Australian Monsoon (NAM) and a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) across northern Australia do tend to enhance the risk of cyclogenesis in our region.
The first tropical cyclone of the season will be named Kate followed by Lam.
Regardless of the outlook and the current forecast, no one should become complacent. Tropical Cyclones do have a mind of their own and if you live in a TC prone area have your survival plan and emergency.
Remember to always be ready because it's not 'if' a cyclone hits, but 'when' a cyclone.
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