Southwest 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
22
23
low
24
low
25
26
med
27
low
28
Mar 1
low
2
3
4
low
5
low
6
7
8
9
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
14
15
16
17
low
18
low
19
20
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 February to 2 March, 13 March to 17 March, and 25 March to 29 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 February to 21 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 February to 3 March, 16 March to 20 March, and 25 March to 29 March.

Issued Feb 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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