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Southwest 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
high
30
high
Oct 1
high
2
low
3
med
4
med
5
med
6
high
7
high
8
high
9
high
10
med
11
12
med
13
med
14
med
15
16
17
low
18
low
19
med
20
high
21
22
med
23
24
25
low
26
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 October to 10 October, 13 October to 17 October, and 21 October to 25 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 October to 11 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 20 October to 24 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 October to 10 October, 13 October to 17 October, and 21 October to 25 October.

Issued Sep 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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