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Southwest 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
high
30
high
31
high
Aug 1
low
2
low
3
high
4
high
5
low
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
high
10
high
11
med
12
high
13
high
14
high
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
low
19
low
20
med
21
high
22
med
23
low
24
low
25
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 August to 10 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 21 August to 25 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 July to 30 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 August to 10 August, 12 August to 16 August, and 16 August to 20 August.

Issued Jul 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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