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Southwest 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
med
23
24
low
25
med
26
high
27
high
28
med
29
med
30
med
Oct 1
med
2
high
3
med
4
low
5
high
6
7
low
8
low
9
med
10
11
low
12
med
13
med
14
med
15
med
16
high
17
med
18
19
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 September to 30 September, 8 October to 12 October, and 16 October to 20 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 October to 23 October, and 24 October to 28 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 September to 30 September, 2 October to 6 October, and 8 October to 12 October.

Issued Sep 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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