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Southern Coastal 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
13
14
low
15
med
16
med
17
med
18
low
19
20
21
22
low
23
24
low
25
26
27
low
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
low
4
med
5
med
6
low
7
8
low
9
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 14 January to 18 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 December to 24 December, and 10 January to 14 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 December to 21 December, 5 January to 9 January, and 14 January to 18 January.

Issued Dec 11

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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