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Southern Coastal 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
low
23
24
25
med
26
med
27
low
28
29
30
31
med
Sep 1
med
2
low
3
4
low
5
med
6
med
7
low
8
low
9
med
10
11
high
12
low
13
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 September to 9 September, 9 September to 13 September, and 16 September to 20 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 August to 22 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 September to 10 September, 16 September to 20 September, and 22 September to 26 September.

Issued Aug 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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