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Southern Coastal 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
low
22
23
24
25
26
high
27
low
28
29
30
low
Jul 1
low
2
3
high
4
high
5
low
6
low
7
8
low
9
med
10
low
11
high
12
low
13
med
14
low
15
16
low
17
low
18
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 June to 3 July, 20 July to 24 July, and 24 July to 28 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 June to 30 June, 1 July to 5 July, and 11 July to 15 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 June to 2 July, 7 July to 11 July, and 20 July to 24 July.

Issued Jun 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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