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Pilbara 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
23
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
low
28
29
30
low
May 1
low
2
med
3
low
4
low
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
low
13
14
low
15
16
17
18
19
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 April to 4 May, 15 May to 19 May, and 24 May to 28 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 April to 30 April, and 23 May to 27 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 April to 3 May, 4 May to 8 May, and 11 May to 15 May.

Issued Apr 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Clear skies brings sun but also cool mornings to Australia

12:08 EST If you live across the interior, you would have noticed that this Easter long weekend couldn't have been any better on the weather front.

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