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Lower West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
3
4
5
low
6
med
7
med
8
high
9
high
10
med
11
high
12
med
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
low
20
low
21
22
low
23
med
24
low
25
med
26
med
27
med
28
low
29
low
30
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August, 20 August to 24 August, and 26 August to 30 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 August to 1 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 August to 15 August, 20 August to 24 August, and 26 August to 30 August.

Issued Aug 2

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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