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Lower West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
29
30
med
May 1
low
2
low
3
med
4
low
5
6
7
8
low
9
10
11
12
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
med
18
med
19
high
20
med
21
22
23
low
24
25
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 May to 16 May, 24 May to 28 May, and 29 May to 2 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 May to 13 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 May to 18 May, 25 May to 29 May, and 29 May to 2 June.

Issued Apr 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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