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Lower West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
high
25
high
26
27
28
29
30
Dec 1
2
3
low
4
low
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
low
13
14
15
16
17
low
18
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the south Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 November to 29 November, 29 November to 3 December, and 6 December to 10 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 December to 11 December, 13 December to 17 December, and 19 December to 23 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 November to 30 November, 6 December to 10 December, and 18 December to 22 December.

Issued Nov 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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