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Kimberley 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
med
30
low
31
Apr 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
low
9
low
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
23
24
25
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 April to 11 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 1 May to 5 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 April to 19 April, and 19 April to 23 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 April to 11 April, 21 April to 25 April, and 1 May to 5 May.

Issued Mar 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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