Fairfax Media Network

Kimberley 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
31
Sep 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 September to 17 September, 23 September to 27 September, and 1 October to 5 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 September to 25 September, and 26 September to 30 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 September to 18 September, 24 September to 28 September, and 1 October to 5 October.

Issued Aug 30

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Snowfalls hit Tassie again

16:10 EST

A very cold airmass coupled with vigorous a low pressure system caused snow to fall to low levels in Tasmania last night and into this morning, leading to road delays and closures.

Shoalhaven oyster farmers face hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses as floods wash away salinity

13:36 EST

Oyster farms flooded in this week's downpour at Greenwell Point on the New South Wales south coast could lose hundreds of thousands of dollars' worth of oysters.

Police rescue motorists stranded in heavy snowfall in Tasmania's south

12:56 EST

Snow has affected some roads in Tasmania's south, prompting police to warn drivers to use extreme caution after a number of motorists were left stranded on Friday night.