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Great Southern 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
low
20
21
low
22
med
23
med
24
med
25
26
27
low
28
med
29
Mar 1
low
2
low
3
4
low
5
6
7
low
8
low
9
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 February to 28 February, 6 March to 10 March, and 15 March to 19 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 February to 20 February, 28 February to 3 March, and 13 March to 17 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 February to 22 February, 24 February to 28 February, and 29 February to 4 March.

Issued Feb 10

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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