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Great Southern 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
3
low
4
low
5
med
6
high
7
high
8
med
9
high
10
11
12
low
13
14
low
15
16
17
low
18
med
19
low
20
med
21
22
low
23
med
24
med
25
med
26
low
27
high
28
low
29
low
30
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 September to 10 September, 10 September to 14 September, and 22 September to 26 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 August to 3 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 September to 10 September, 10 September to 14 September, and 22 September to 26 September.

Issued Sep 1

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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