Fairfax Media Network

Great Southern 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
high
28
med
29
low
30
high
31
med
Sep 1
low
2
med
3
high
4
med
5
low
6
low
7
8
med
9
high
10
11
med
12
low
13
14
15
low
16
med
17
med
18
19
20
low
21
low
22
23
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 September to 6 September, 10 September to 14 September, and 16 September to 20 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 August to 4 September, and 18 September to 22 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 September to 6 September, 9 September to 13 September, and 16 September to 20 September.

Issued Aug 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Beach shacks falling into the sea fears for South Australian community

13:41 EST

Beach shack owners in South Australia say urgent action is needed, after storm erosion has put their properties at risk of falling into the sea.

Insurers and government leave council high and dry after coastal storm damage

13:08 EST

The Bega Valley Shire Council is caught in a perfect storm of insurers and governments avoiding claims to repair storm damage to a heritage wharf.

Severe storm derails train in southern France

12:48 EST

During a thunderstorm, approximately 20 percent of lightning strikes reach the ground and the rest occur within the cloud.