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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › Great Southern Rainfall Forecast

Great Southern 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
22
23
24
25
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
high
31
high
Jun 1
med
2
3
low
4
med
5
low
6
7
8
low
9
low
10
med
11
low
12
low
13
med
14
high
15
med
16
low
17
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 May to 1 June, 9 June to 13 June, and 20 June to 24 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 May to 4 June, 6 June to 10 June, and 19 June to 23 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 May to 2 June, 9 June to 13 June, and 22 June to 26 June.

Issued May 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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May turning into a wet one for Alice Springs

13:39 EST With 28mm already recorded in the rain gauge this month, Alice Springs is having its wettest May since 2004.

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