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Great Southern 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
17
18
19
low
20
med
21
high
22
high
23
low
24
med
25
26
med
27
med
28
29
30
31
med
Sep 1
low
2
med
3
low
4
low
5
6
med
7
low
8
9
10
11
12
low
13
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 31 August to 4 September, 5 September to 9 September, and 15 September to 19 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 August to 28 August, 1 September to 5 September, and 17 September to 21 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 August to 26 August, 31 August to 4 September, and 5 September to 9 September.

Issued Aug 15

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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