Goldfields 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
20
med
21
med
22
low
23
low
24
25
26
27
low
28
low
29
30
31
low
Apr 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
low
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
low
12
13
14
15
med
16
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 March to 27 March, 1 April to 5 April, and 18 April to 22 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 March to 20 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 March to 27 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 19 April to 23 April.

Issued Mar 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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