|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 October to 10 October, 23 October to 27 October, and 27 October to 31 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 October to 19 October, and 26 October to 30 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 October to 10 October, 21 October to 25 October, and 27 October to 31 October.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
17:45 EST It's been a wet and wild 48 hours in parts of Western Australia with some parts of the grain growing region receiving over 65 millimetres of rain and wind gusts of almost 100 kilometres an hour.