Gascoyne 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 September to 7 September, 12 September to 16 September, and 24 September to 28 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 August to 3 September, 5 September to 9 September, and 18 September to 22 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 September to 7 September, 15 September to 19 September, and 24 September to 28 September.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
The 2016 snow season has reached a new peak depth this week according to measurements taken today.
Rain gauges as far north as the Gulf of Carpentaria and south to Ulladulla have received decent rainfall in the last 24 hours, some of which caused dangerous flooding.
A friend of a man feared drowned in floodwaters near Kyogle has told of "helplessly watching" the 72-year-old as he clung to a tree before being swept downstream.