Eucla 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 April to 13 April, 14 April to 18 April, and 1 May to 5 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 April to 28 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 April to 17 April, 21 April to 25 April, and 29 April to 3 May.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Parts of south-east Queensland have been hit with more than 200 millimetres of rain, stranding people in flash flooding and causing schools to remain closed on Friday.
NSW floods: SES evacuation orders and warnings for Murwillumbah and Tweed Heads areas as rescues underway
An evacuation order has been issued by the SES for areas around Murwillumbah, Condong and Tumbulgum, with further warnings in place for areas around Tweed Heads, as floodwaters threaten towns and properties in northern NSW.
A number of central Queensland coal mines operated by BHP Billiton and Glencore remain shut due to torrential rain as ex-Tropical Cyclone Debbie continued to make its way through the state.