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Eucla 28-day Rainfall Forecast
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- 28-day
- 12-month
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low
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| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern is now a 4-wave pattern. The main troughs are near the longitudes of the Great Australian Bight, the central Pacific Ocean, east of South America and the western Indian Ocean. They appear to be progressing normally at about 15deg of longitude per day. It is still more zonal than previously (i.e. more west/east orientation). Consequently highs and lows in the Australian region should move steadily from west to east over the next couple of weeks. The next troughs near south-eastern Australia should be present about 13 October, then 24 October and 04 November.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the major spring cold front events likely to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23-25 October and 05-07 November. Events limited to more southern regions are likely about 06-08 October, 14 October, 01-02 November, 10-12 November, 15-16 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18-21 October, 05-08 November and 10-12 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest spring cold fronts should occur about 11-12 October and 02-04 November. Lesser events are likely about 09 October, 16-17 October, 21-22 October and 21-22 November. Rain events moving in from the north are possible about 28-29 October, 03-04 November, 08-09 November and 16-17 November.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by looking at the movement and strength of the long wave pattern, and its effect on short wave pressure systems such as lows and cold fronts. The daily movement of long and short wave patterns is monitored and projected in order to determine regions where long and short wave troughs are likely to coincide over the coming month.
If long and short wave troughs coincide or amplify there is an increased likelihood of a rain event across a large area. Where long and short wave patterns do not coincide, but rather cancel one another, the likelihood of a rain event is reduced.
Rain events are presumed to move steadily from west to east and to track the general movement of the long wave pattern, thus providing an indicator of where and when rain is most likely.
Regions where troughs are expected to amplify are assigned a high rainfall probability. Whereas regions in which the long and short wave troughs cancel each other have a low rainfall probability. On days where there are no long or short wave troughs affecting a particular region, it is likely to be dry.
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