Fairfax Media Network

Eucla 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
low
25
26
27
28
med
29
low
30
31
Aug 1
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
7
8
low
9
10
low
11
med
12
low
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
med
20
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 24 August to 28 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 July to 4 August, and 17 August to 21 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 August to 9 August, 9 August to 13 August, and 17 August to 21 August.

Issued Jul 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

New Zealand storms: Clean-up underway as Christchurch and Dunedin residents survey damage

10:21 EST

Emergency services and council workers are assessing the damage in Christchurch and Dunedin, as the clean-up begins in Timaru and Otago after a severe storm battered New Zealand's South Island.

Melbourne water supply could be under threat within a decade, water authority says

09:44 EST

Melbourne's water providers have begun planning for a possible water crisis, as a new report suggests the city could start running out of water within a decade.

Dry winter exacerbated by frost over growing regions

12:43 EST

Winter has made itself felt in recent days over the southeastern inland but not in the form of rain bearing cold fronts.