Eucla 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 October to 6 October, 22 October to 26 October, and 30 October to 3 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 October to 12 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 23 October to 27 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 October to 6 October, 7 October to 11 October, and 11 October to 15 October.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Australia's tropics are acting like it's already the wet season, even though September is technically the final month of the dry.
Adelaide residents are preparing for heavy rain, high seas and strong winds forecast to hit later this week, in what the SES says could be one of the most significant weather events it has seen in South Australia.
Forbes has been declared a natural disaster zone after the region was hit by flooding over the weekend.