Central Wheatbelt 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 December to 12 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 31 December to 4 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 December to 9 December, 10 December to 14 December, and 22 December to 26 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 December to 12 December, 23 December to 27 December, and 31 December to 4 January.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Conditions will not be favourable for fires burning north of Adelaide as warming temperatures, little rain and strengthening winds move across the region early next week.
The publican in the South Australian town of Olary said historic buildings and cottages stood no chance against a fire that tore through the town.
A severe thunderstorm tore through Darwin early this morning, bringing damaging winds and heavy rainfall totals.