Central Wheatbelt 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 October to 13 October, 17 October to 21 October, and 24 October to 28 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 October to 20 October, 28 October to 1 November, and 1 November to 5 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 October to 14 October, 17 October to 21 October, and 21 October to 25 October.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Adelaide residents have been warned to go home from work early if they are not performing essential duties as the metropolitan area braces for heavy weather.
South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill has warned storm conditions are likely to worsen this afternoon, and will be "as bad, if not worse than yesterday".
Parts of South Australia may be without electricity until the end of the weekend as the power network is repaired and gradually brought back online, ElectraNet has said.