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Central West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
11
low
12
13
med
14
high
15
16
med
17
18
low
19
med
20
med
21
low
22
low
23
24
low
25
low
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
31
Aug 1
2
low
3
low
4
5
med
6
7
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, and New Zealand.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 July to 25 July, 3 August to 7 August, and 13 August to 17 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 July to 27 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 July to 31 July, 2 August to 6 August, and 8 August to 12 August.

Issued Jul 10

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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