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South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
4
high
5
6
low
7
med
8
high
9
med
10
11
12
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
17
med
18
19
low
20
low
21
22
23
24
25
low
26
27
28
29
30
low
31
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 December to 21 December, 21 December to 25 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 December to 11 December, 11 December to 15 December, and 28 December to 1 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, 25 December to 29 December, and 31 December to 4 January.

Issued Dec 3

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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