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South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
high
20
21
med
22
med
23
med
24
med
25
low
26
med
27
med
28
low
29
med
30
low
31
high
Nov 1
med
2
high
3
med
4
low
5
6
low
7
low
8
high
9
med
10
low
11
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 October to 29 October, 30 October to 3 November, and 8 November to 12 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 October to 29 October, and 17 November to 21 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 October to 29 October, 30 October to 3 November, and 9 November to 13 November.

Issued Oct 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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