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South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
25
med
26
low
27
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
low
4
med
5
low
6
7
8
9
10
low
11
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
low
18
19
20
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 December to 1 January, 8 January to 12 January, and 14 January to 18 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 10 January to 14 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 December to 1 January, 4 January to 8 January, and 14 January to 18 January.

Issued Dec 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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