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South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
med
19
low
20
21
low
22
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
med
28
med
29
med
30
med
Oct 1
med
2
med
3
med
4
high
5
6
low
7
high
8
med
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
med
13
low
14
med
15
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 October to 5 October, 10 October to 14 October, and 20 October to 24 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 October to 23 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 September to 30 September, 1 October to 5 October, and 10 October to 14 October.

Issued Sep 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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