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South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
17
low
18
low
19
med
20
med
21
22
23
24
25
26
low
27
28
29
30
low
31
med
Jan 1
2
low
3
low
4
5
med
6
low
7
low
8
med
9
low
10
low
11
12
13
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 December to 31 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 December to 24 December, 11 January to 15 January, and 16 January to 20 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 6 January to 10 January.

Issued Dec 15

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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