South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
20
21
22
23
24
25
med
26
low
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
low
31
med
Feb 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
low
5
6
7
high
8
low
9
med
10
med
11
low
12
med
13
14
low
15
low
16
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 January to 30 January, 31 January to 4 February, and 8 February to 12 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 January to 3 February, 10 February to 14 February, and 16 February to 20 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 January to 30 January, 6 February to 10 February, and 15 February to 19 February.

Issued Jan 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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