East Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
20
21
med
22
med
23
low
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
May 1
2
3
low
4
low
5
6
7
low
8
9
med
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
14
15
med
16
med
17
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 April to 28 April, 6 May to 10 May, and 21 May to 25 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 May to 25 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 April to 29 April, 19 May to 23 May, and 23 May to 27 May.

Issued Apr 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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