Fairfax Media Network

Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
14
high
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
19
med
20
low
21
med
22
med
23
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
med
28
med
29
low
30
31
Jan 1
2
low
3
low
4
5
low
6
7
8
9
10
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 December to 24 December, 1 January to 5 January, and 13 January to 17 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 December to 25 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 December to 23 December, 25 December to 29 December, and 13 January to 17 January.

Issued Dec 13

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Next two nights to feature year's best meteor shower

15:10 EDT

The most spectacular meteor shower of the year will be visible from Australia during the next two nights.

Storm band to bring rain, wind across northern Tasmania

15:04 EDT

Tasmanians in the state's north are urged being to be ready for forecast heavy rain and strong winds tonight and tomorrow, with a father and son spending an hour in the ocean clinging to their upturned boat off the north-east coast this morning.

Wangaratta flood warning issued as wild weather dumps rain across Victoria

14:53 EDT

Victoria's north-east has been hit hard by torrential rain and flash flooding as intense storms sweep across the state, delivering up to a month's worth of rain in a single day and stranding cars on a major freeway.

Help us build a better Weatherzone experience by testing new concepts and providing your feedback.
Sign up to be notified when new test activities become available.