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Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
med
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
low
May 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
med
8
low
9
10
low
11
high
12
high
13
low
14
low
15
med
16
med
17
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 May to 19 May, 19 May to 23 May, and 23 May to 27 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 May to 6 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 May to 13 May, 14 May to 18 May, and 18 May to 22 May.

Issued Apr 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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