Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

period
28-day
12-month

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

11
med

12
med

15
low

16
med

17
low

18
low

19
low

20
med

21
low

22
low

23
high

24
high

25
high

26
high

27
low

28
low

29
med

Mar 1
med

2
high

3
high

4
high

5
med

6
med

7
med

8
high

9
high

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 4 March to 8 March, 9 March to 13 March, and 14 March to 18 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 February to 25 February, 2 March to 6 March, and 13 March to 17 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 February to 25 February, 29 February to 4 March, and 4 March to 8 March.

Issued Feb 9

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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