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Upper Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
10
low
11
12
13
med
14
high
15
high
16
high
17
low
18
low
19
low
20
21
22
low
23
med
24
low
25
26
low
27
med
28
low
29
low
30
31
med
Jan 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
med
5
med
6
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 December to 17 December, 19 December to 23 December, and 7 January to 11 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 December to 23 December, 23 December to 27 December, and 27 December to 31 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 7 January to 11 January.

Issued Dec 8

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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