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Upper Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
26
med
27
high
28
med
29
med
30
med
31
high
Sep 1
high
2
med
3
med
4
low
5
high
6
high
7
high
8
med
9
high
10
high
11
med
12
high
13
high
14
med
15
high
16
med
17
med
18
low
19
med
20
high
21
med
22
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 September to 7 September, 12 September to 16 September, and 24 September to 28 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 August to 3 September, 5 September to 9 September, and 18 September to 22 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 September to 7 September, 15 September to 19 September, and 24 September to 28 September.

Issued Aug 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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