Fairfax Media Network

Upper Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
4
high
5
high
6
high
7
high
8
med
9
10
low
11
low
12
med
13
high
14
med
15
low
16
med
17
high
18
med
19
med
20
med
21
high
22
med
23
high
24
med
25
med
26
high
27
med
28
med
29
med
30
high
31
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 21 August to 25 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 August to 3 September, and 4 September to 8 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 21 August to 25 August.

Issued Aug 3

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Snow settles on Hobart's beaches as falls force closure of roads and schools

13:26 EST

Snowfalls are starting to ease in southern Tasmania but many schools and roads remain closed.

Spectacular day for Darwin Cup

12:07 EST

The sun is out for Darwin's favorite event on the social calendar.

Sandcastles meet snowmen in Hobart

11:28 EST

Residents of Hobart woke up to a rare site this morning - snow! Many people took to Twitter using the hashtag "snowbart" to document the event.