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Upper Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
high
28
med
29
high
30
high
31
high
Aug 1
high
2
high
3
high
4
high
5
med
6
med
7
high
8
high
9
high
10
high
11
high
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
high
16
high
17
low
18
med
19
high
20
high
21
med
22
low
23
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 July to 3 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 21 August to 25 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 August to 24 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 July to 3 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 21 August to 25 August.

Issued Jul 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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