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Northeast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
20
21
22
23
med
24
high
25
high
26
27
28
Mar 1
2
med
3
med
4
med
5
6
med
7
low
8
med
9
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
14
low
15
med
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and the south Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 March to 6 March, 6 March to 10 March, and 13 March to 17 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 February to 2 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 March to 6 March, 6 March to 10 March, and 14 March to 18 March.

Issued Feb 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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