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Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
4
med
5
low
6
high
7
high
8
med
9
med
10
11
low
12
high
13
high
14
high
15
med
16
low
17
18
low
19
med
20
low
21
low
22
med
23
med
24
high
25
high
26
med
27
med
28
high
29
low
30
low
Oct 1
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 September to 15 September, 16 September to 20 September, and 29 September to 3 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 August to 4 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 September to 15 September, 16 September to 20 September, and 29 September to 3 October.

Issued Sep 2

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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