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Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
7
med
8
low
9
med
10
11
high
12
high
13
low
14
high
15
high
16
med
17
18
low
19
low
20
low
21
med
22
med
23
med
24
high
25
med
26
med
27
low
28
29
30
med
31
low
Apr 1
low
2
low
3
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 22 March to 26 March, and 1 April to 5 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 April to 13 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 March to 16 March, 22 March to 26 March, and 5 April to 9 April.

Issued Mar 6

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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