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Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
low
26
med
27
med
28
high
29
med
30
med
31
high
Jun 1
high
2
med
3
high
4
low
5
low
6
med
7
med
8
low
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
med
13
med
14
med
15
med
16
high
17
high
18
high
19
high
20
high
21
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 June to 11 June, 13 June to 17 June, and 23 June to 27 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 June to 8 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 June to 11 June, 13 June to 17 June, and 19 June to 23 June.

Issued May 24

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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