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Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
Mar 1
low
2
med
3
low
4
5
med
6
low
7
8
low
9
low
10
high
11
low
12
med
13
low
14
15
low
16
low
17
med
18
med
19
high
20
med
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
low
25
med
26
27
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 March to 19 March, 29 March to 2 April, and 2 April to 6 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 March to 17 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 March to 10 March, 13 March to 17 March, and 23 March to 27 March.

Issued Feb 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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