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Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
30
high
Jul 1
low
2
low
3
med
4
med
5
med
6
med
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
high
12
high
13
med
14
low
15
med
16
med
17
med
18
med
19
low
20
med
21
med
22
low
23
24
high
25
high
26
med
27
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 July to 23 July, 24 July to 28 July, and 31 July to 4 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 July to 9 July, 18 July to 22 July, and 28 July to 1 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 July to 13 July, 16 July to 20 July, and 22 July to 26 July.

Issued Jun 29

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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