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Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
6
med
7
med
8
med
9
high
10
11
high
12
high
13
14
low
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
low
19
med
20
med
21
high
22
high
23
low
24
high
25
high
26
high
27
high
28
med
29
med
30
low
31
low
Apr 1
low
2
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 March to 25 March, 25 March to 29 March, and 5 April to 9 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 3 March to 7 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 March to 14 March, 25 March to 29 March, and 5 April to 9 April.

Issued Mar 5

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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