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Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
5
low
6
low
7
med
8
high
9
med
10
11
low
12
13
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
low
18
med
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
med
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
med
27
med
28
low
29
med
30
low
31
med
Jan 1
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 6 January to 10 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 December to 13 December, 13 December to 17 December, and 2 January to 6 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 December to 18 December, 18 December to 22 December, and 6 January to 10 January.

Issued Dec 4

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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