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King Island 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
20
21
22
23
24
25
low
26
med
27
low
28
med
29
low
30
Oct 1
2
med
3
4
low
5
med
6
high
7
8
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
15
med
16
med
17
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 September to 4 October, 15 October to 19 October, and 19 October to 23 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 October to 26 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 September to 3 October, 8 October to 12 October, and 15 October to 19 October.

Issued Sep 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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