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King Island 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sep 1
high
2
low
3
4
med
5
med
6
7
med
8
high
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
high
13
med
14
med
15
med
16
low
17
med
18
low
19
med
20
low
21
high
22
high
23
high
24
med
25
high
26
med
27
med
28
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 September to 10 September, 20 September to 24 September, and 25 September to 29 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 September to 23 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 September to 10 September, 10 September to 14 September, and 19 September to 23 September.

Issued Aug 31

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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