Fairfax Media Network

East Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
14
low
15
16
med
17
high
18
high
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
med
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
med
28
med
29
30
low
31
med
Jan 1
low
2
low
3
med
4
low
5
low
6
med
7
med
8
9
low
10
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 December to 24 December, 1 January to 5 January, and 13 January to 17 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 December to 25 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 December to 23 December, 25 December to 29 December, and 13 January to 17 January.

Issued Dec 13

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Wangaratta flood warning issued as wild weather dumps rain across Victoria

14:11 EDT

Victoria's north-east has been hit hard by torrential rain and flash flooding as intense storms sweep across the state, delivering up to a month's worth of rain in a single day and stranding cars on a major freeway.

Tropical Cyclone Owen reaches category three on NT coast, may develop to category four today

12:06 EDT

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen has developed into a category three system and may reach category four intensity in the next six hours.

Extreme weather on the way as tropical cyclone, southern low pressure system develop in the east

10:58 EDT

Two weather systems are coming together to create a deluge that is set to pummel much of the eastern seaboard in the coming days, with the Bureau of Meteorology issuing severe weather warnings in several states.

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