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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › Central North Rainfall Forecast

Central North 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
9
med
10
med
11
high
12
med
13
low
14
med
15
med
16
low
17
med
18
med
19
20
low
21
low
22
23
high
24
25
26
27
28
low
29
low
30
low
31
low
Apr 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
5
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 March to 18 March, 28 March to 1 April, and 8 April to 12 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 March to 9 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 March to 18 March, 31 March to 4 April, and 8 April to 12 April.

Issued Mar 7

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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