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Central North 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sep 1
high
2
3
med
4
low
5
6
med
7
8
high
9
low
10
11
med
12
high
13
med
14
high
15
high
16
med
17
high
18
low
19
low
20
low
21
high
22
high
23
med
24
med
25
low
26
low
27
low
28
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 September to 10 September, 16 September to 20 September, and 2 October to 6 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 September to 16 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 September to 10 September, 10 September to 14 September, and 2 October to 6 October.

Issued Aug 30

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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WA's wet weather continues

12:35 EST Heavy showers have continued over southwestern parts of Western Australia after yesterday saw some of the heaviest August rain in 100 years.

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