Central North 28-day Rainfall Forecast
- period
- 28-day
- 12-month
med
high
med
med
med
low
low
high
low
low
low
low
low
med
med
med
med
med
high
med
med
high
med
med
med
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and the south Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 October to 6 October, 7 October to 11 October, and 13 October to 17 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 September to 2 October, 3 October to 7 October, and 14 October to 18 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 September to 28 September, 8 October to 12 October, and 13 October to 17 October.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Much needed rain for Perth
13:22 EST
A complex low pressure system and cold front are affecting the southwestern parts of the country in coming days, leading to some welcome if gusty showers over Perth.
Records smashed under summer-like heat
11:55 EST
Over 100 different stations have had their hottest September day or night in at least a decade, including new state records in New South Wales and Victoria.
Bushfire fears as southern Queensland faces significant fire risk over the weekend
17:13 EST
Southern Queensland is in the grip of hot and dry conditions which prompted major fears for significant bushfires over the weekend.
