Fairfax Media Network

Central North 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
20
low
21
low
22
high
23
med
24
low
25
low
26
27
high
28
med
29
high
30
low
Jul 1
high
2
high
3
med
4
low
5
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
med
10
med
11
low
12
low
13
14
low
15
low
16
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 June to 4 July, 7 July to 11 July, and 17 July to 21 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 June to 28 June, and 22 July to 26 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 June to 3 July, 3 July to 7 July, and 17 July to 21 July.

Issued Jun 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Did this cold snap break records?

12:27 EST

A pulse of wintry weather has sent shivers across southeastern Australia during the last few days.

Could Ord Valley hay be the solution to feed shortages in drought-stricken SE Australia?

06:21 EST

Could fodder grown in Western Australia's remote Ord River Irrigation Scheme be the solution to the feed shortage on drought-stricken farmland in South Eastern Australia? The sub-tropical climate and access to irrigation allows farmers in the Ord to produce significant tonnages of Rhodes Grass hay for the local cattle industry, yields up to 30 tonnes per hectare a year.

Unlikely snow events in Australia

13:40 EST

It seems that every year, and especially around the first decent snowfall of the season, we always get asked where abouts it will snow.