Fairfax Media Network

Central North 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
high
19
low
20
21
low
22
med
23
med
24
low
25
med
26
med
27
low
28
med
29
med
30
med
31
low
Sep 1
med
2
low
3
4
low
5
low
6
7
low
8
low
9
high
10
med
11
med
12
high
13
high
14
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 August to 31 August, 10 September to 14 September, and 15 September to 19 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 August to 1 September, 11 September to 15 September, and 20 September to 24 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 September to 10 September, 11 September to 15 September, and 15 September to 19 September.

Issued Aug 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

WA convoy delivers much-needed hay to drought-stricken NSW farmers

17:14 EST

A convoy of trucks has rolled into the regional NSW town of Condobolin to deliver hay to more than 200 drought-affected farmers.

Chilly morning to come for southwest WA

16:27 EST

Cold air in the wake of a front will lead to rapid cooling tonight across the southwest of the state.

Broken Hill plagued by emus as they head into town in search of food, water

13:57 EST

Mobs of emus have taken over the small mining town of Broken Hill in far west New South Wales, running laps of the main street, eating gardens and gate crashing football matches.