Central North 28-day Rainfall Forecast
- period
- 28-day
- 12-month
med
high
med
low
high
high
high
high
med
low
low
low
high
med
low
med
med
med
med
med
high
high
med
high
high
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 24 August to 28 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 July to 4 August, and 17 August to 21 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 August to 9 August, 9 August to 13 August, and 17 August to 21 August.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Display your Local Weather here
automatically each time you visit us:
Rotates through Temperature,
Wind, Humidity and RainUse the Search Bar above
to find your Local, and go to the Local page
Click "Set My Local"
button next to the location name
Weather News
Dry winter exacerbated by frost over growing regions
12:43 EST
Winter has made itself felt in recent days over the southeastern inland but not in the form of rain bearing cold fronts.
Canberra's cold, dry start to winter
14:47 EST
Canberra is known for its cold weather, although this winter has been even colder - and drier - than usual.
Late-week frost covers eastern Australia
13:49 EST
It's a frosty end to the week across much of eastern and southeast Australia, with parts of four states experiencing their lowest temperature in two years this morning.
