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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › Central North Rainfall Forecast

Central North 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
10
high
11
med
12
med
13
low
14
low
15
med
16
low
17
18
19
20
21
med
22
low
23
24
low
25
26
27
med
28
med
29
med
30
31
med
Jan 1
low
2
3
4
low
5
med
6
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 December to 22 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 December to 3 January, 3 January to 7 January, and 8 January to 12 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 December to 23 December, 25 December to 29 December, and 8 January to 12 January.

Issued Dec 8

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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