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West Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
2
3
4
5
6
7
med
8
9
10
11
12
13
med
14
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
19
med
20
low
21
22
23
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
low
28
low
29
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 August to 16 August, 18 August to 22 August, and 26 August to 30 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 August to 11 August, and 28 August to 1 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 August to 16 August, 18 August to 22 August, and 26 August to 30 August.

Issued Jul 31

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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