West Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 17 May to 21 May, 31 May to 4 June, and 9 June to 13 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 June to 5 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 May to 16 May, 17 May to 21 May, and 25 May to 29 May.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Sydney-sider's woke to a blanket of haze this morning, primarily in the north as light westerly breezes wafted smoke from hazard reduction burns inland towards the coast.
Ignorance is a dangerous thing in a country like Papua New Guinea.
Authorities are warning South Australians to brace for widespread heavy rain across the weekend, with the weather bureau forecasting up to 80 millimetres in some areas.