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West Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
29
30
high
31
high
Aug 1
high
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
7
8
9
low
10
11
low
12
low
13
med
14
med
15
low
16
17
18
19
low
20
21
med
22
med
23
med
24
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 August to 15 August, 24 August to 28 August, and 30 August to 3 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 July to 29 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 August to 15 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 30 August to 3 September.

Issued Jul 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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