West Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 May to 7 May, and 10 May to 14 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 April to 29 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 May to 8 May, and 10 May to 14 May.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
A tropical cyclone may form in Australian waters during the next 24 hours, although the system will have little impact on our mainland.
Parts of eastern and southeast Australia experienced their coldest temperatures in at least six months this morning.
Tasmania's heritage buildings are taking a battering from gusty winds they were not designed to withstand.