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Upper South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
med
28
high
29
high
30
high
Oct 1
2
3
med
4
low
5
low
6
7
med
8
med
9
med
10
low
11
12
low
13
med
14
15
16
low
17
low
18
med
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 October to 7 October, 16 October to 20 October, and 20 October to 24 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 October to 26 October, and 27 October to 31 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 October to 10 October, 17 October to 21 October, and 26 October to 30 October.

Issued Sep 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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