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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › Upper South East Rainfall Forecast

Upper South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
26
med
27
low
28
29
med
30
low
31
med
Jun 1
2
3
4
low
5
low
6
med
7
med
8
med
9
med
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
med
14
med
15
low
16
low
17
med
18
low
19
20
low
21
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are eight main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 May to 2 June, 4 June to 8 June, and 21 June to 25 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 May to 2 June, 12 June to 16 June, and 21 June to 25 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 June to 5 June, 8 June to 12 June, and 21 June to 25 June.

Issued May 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Improvement to seasonal weather outlook

ABC image 16:06 EST The weather bureau has implemented a new system of forecasting the seasonal outlook called Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, or POAMA.

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