Upper South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 February to 1 March, 14 March to 18 March, and 25 March to 29 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 February to 22 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 February to 3 March, 10 March to 14 March, and 14 March to 18 March.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
WA's Kimberley is in the midst of one of its biggest wet seasons on record, causing headaches for emergency services, remote communities and cattle stations cut off by flooding, but it has not been all bad news for the region.
Some homes in the community of Borroloola on the Gulf of Carpentaria have been evacuated with 74 residents sheltering elsewhere, as they wait for Cyclone Alfred to make landfall about sunrise on Tuesday.
Shacks in the fishing village of King Ash Bay in the Northern Territory's Gulf of Carpentaria have been flooded by the McArthur River.