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Upper South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Feb 1
2
3
low
4
med
5
low
6
7
8
9
10
low
11
low
12
med
13
low
14
med
15
16
low
17
low
18
19
20
21
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 31 January to 4 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 January to 31 January, 3 February to 7 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 January to 2 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 22 February to 26 February.

Issued Jan 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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