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Riverland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
26
27
28
29
30
Dec 1
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
7
low
8
9
low
10
low
11
12
13
14
15
low
16
med
17
med
18
19
low
20
med
21
low
22
low
23
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 December to 5 December, 8 December to 12 December, and 20 December to 24 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 December to 8 December, 11 December to 15 December, and 22 December to 26 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 December to 6 December, 14 December to 18 December, and 18 December to 22 December.

Issued Nov 24

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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