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NE Pastoral 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
30
31
med
Sep 1
med
2
low
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
low
16
17
18
19
20
21
low
22
low
23
24
low
25
26
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 September to 18 September, 22 September to 26 September, and 1 October to 5 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 August to 30 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 September to 18 September, 21 September to 25 September, and 1 October to 5 October.

Issued Aug 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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