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NE Pastoral 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Mar 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
low
16
low
17
18
19
20
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, and the south Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 February to 3 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 24 March to 28 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 February to 1 March, 1 March to 5 March, and 9 March to 13 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 February to 2 March, 14 March to 18 March, and 23 March to 27 March.

Issued Feb 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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