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Murraylands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
25
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
high
30
low
31
med
Jun 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
5
med
6
med
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
11
low
12
low
13
med
14
15
low
16
low
17
18
med
19
low
20
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 June to 7 June, 20 June to 24 June, and 26 June to 30 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 June to 27 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 May to 2 June, 3 June to 7 June, and 16 June to 20 June.

Issued May 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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