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Murraylands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
26
med
27
low
28
med
29
30
low
31
med
Jun 1
low
2
3
4
med
5
low
6
low
7
low
8
9
10
11
12
low
13
med
14
low
15
low
16
17
18
19
low
20
low
21
22
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 June to 15 June, 23 June to 27 June, and 27 June to 1 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 June to 5 June, 16 June to 20 June, and 23 June to 27 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 June to 15 June, 23 June to 27 June, and 27 June to 1 July.

Issued May 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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