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Murraylands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
2
low
3
low
4
5
low
6
low
7
8
9
10
low
11
low
12
med
13
14
low
15
med
16
17
low
18
low
19
med
20
low
21
med
22
med
23
low
24
25
med
26
med
27
med
28
low
29
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 August to 23 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September.

Issued Jul 31

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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