|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 January to 10 January, 24 January to 28 January, and 29 January to 2 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 January to 16 January, 26 January to 30 January, and 31 January to 4 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 January to 10 January, 14 January to 18 January, and 24 January to 28 January.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
19:09 EDT Darwin should be set for some much needed relief from hot and steamy weather, with the Bureau of of Meteorology predicting a monsoon trough would set in over the city on New Year's Eve.