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Mount Lofty Ranges 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
28
29
30
low
Dec 1
low
2
low
3
med
4
med
5
high
6
med
7
low
8
9
10
11
low
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
low
20
low
21
med
22
med
23
low
24
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 November to 4 December, 7 December to 11 December, and 14 December to 18 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 3 December to 7 December, and 10 December to 14 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 December to 5 December, 7 December to 11 December, and 15 December to 19 December.

Issued Nov 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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