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Mount Lofty Ranges 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
23
med
24
med
25
low
26
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
Oct 1
2
low
3
low
4
med
5
med
6
7
low
8
low
9
med
10
11
12
low
13
med
14
low
15
high
16
low
17
med
18
med
19
20
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 October to 6 October, 7 October to 11 October, and 13 October to 17 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 October to 17 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 October to 6 October, 7 October to 11 October, and 15 October to 19 October.

Issued Sep 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Rain and thunder soaking central QLD

12:44 EST Rain and thunderstorms have barely let up over the past day over central QLD, drenching some places with their best rain in over a year with more on the way today.

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