Fairfax Media Network

Mid North 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
22
high
23
med
24
25
26
med
27
28
med
29
med
30
high
31
med
Sep 1
2
3
low
4
5
6
low
7
med
8
low
9
10
11
12
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 August to 1 September, 5 September to 9 September, and 23 September to 27 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 September to 20 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 August to 1 September, 5 September to 9 September, and 16 September to 20 September.

Issued Aug 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

A scattering of storms for southwest WA

14:39 EST

Storms look like sparking up later today over parts of the southwest as a low pressure system approaches.

Rain likely to soak parts of NSW this weekend

14:00 EST

Some drought affected areas of New South Wales are a good chance of seeing soaking rain this weekend, but unfortunately some will miss out.

'Don't forget us': farmers in Victoria's east battle a 'green drought'

13:29 EST

Farmers in Victoria's east have made an impassioned plea not to be forgotten in the debate about drought.