Fairfax Media Network

Mid North 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
22
23
24
25
low
26
27
28
29
30
31
low
Feb 1
2
3
4
5
low
6
low
7
8
9
10
11
12
med
13
14
15
low
16
17
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 January to 1 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 10 February to 14 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 January to 28 January, and 2 February to 6 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 January to 2 February, and 5 February to 9 February.

Issued Jan 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Southern states swelter as power supply struggles

00:08 EDT

The power supply in Victoria and South Australia is being put to the test as five of the states and territories face an extreme heatwave, after temperatures in some areas hit 40 degrees Celsius.

Melbourne hits 42C before cool change as authorities defend 'heat kills' warnings

21:48 EDT

Melburnians — and the world's best tennis players — have battled through temperatures of about 42 degrees Celsius, as energy authorities curtailed some industrial users' power consumption and firefighters across Victoria stood on high alert.

Canberra braces for heatwave as temperatures expected to soar above 37C for four consecutive days

21:03 EDT

Canberrans are about to swelter through the weekend, with four consecutive days at or above 37 degrees Celsius.