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Lower South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
26
low
27
low
28
29
30
May 1
low
2
low
3
high
4
med
5
med
6
low
7
8
med
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
med
13
med
14
high
15
low
16
low
17
18
low
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 May to 6 May, 10 May to 14 May, and 26 May to 30 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 May to 28 May, and 29 May to 2 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 May to 8 May, 10 May to 14 May, and 22 May to 26 May.

Issued Apr 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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