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Lower South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
med
23
med
24
med
25
high
26
low
27
med
28
low
29
med
30
high
31
low
Aug 1
med
2
med
3
med
4
med
5
med
6
low
7
high
8
med
9
low
10
med
11
high
12
med
13
low
14
low
15
med
16
high
17
high
18
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 24 August to 28 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 July to 4 August, and 17 August to 21 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 August to 9 August, 9 August to 13 August, and 17 August to 21 August.

Issued Jul 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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