Lower South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
high
22
23
24
low
25
med
26
low
27
low
28
29
low
30
May 1
2
3
med
4
med
5
low
6
low
7
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
13
14
15
med
16
low
17
low
18
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 May to 5 May, 13 May to 17 May, and 21 May to 25 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 18 April to 22 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 May to 6 May, 13 May to 17 May, and 21 May to 25 May.

Issued Apr 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Temperatures soar in Adelaide for second day ahead of imminent cold front

14:47 EST

As large parts of South Australia swelter through yet another day of above 30-degree heat, it is hard to believe that temperatures are expected to plummet into Easter Sunday by as much as 15 degrees.

Brisbane's wet long weekend

12:33 EST

Over the next week, Brisbane is expected to receive periods of rain each day with unstable onshore winds.

Snow falls in WA in April for first time in 49 years as Good Friday cold blast turns Bluff Knoll white

11:47 EST

Western Australia's south-west received an unexpected surprise on Good Friday, with snowfall on Bluff Knoll in the Stirling Ranges.