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Lower South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
23
med
24
med
25
26
27
28
Mar 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
7
8
low
9
10
11
med
12
med
13
low
14
15
low
16
low
17
18
19
20
low
21
low
22
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 March to 12 March, 15 March to 19 March, and 20 March to 24 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 February to 4 March, 4 March to 8 March, and 11 March to 15 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 March to 18 March.

Issued Feb 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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