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Lower South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
2
3
4
med
5
high
6
med
7
med
8
med
9
high
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
14
15
low
16
low
17
high
18
19
med
20
low
21
med
22
med
23
high
24
high
25
med
26
med
27
med
28
med
29
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 June to 11 June, 19 June to 23 June, and 27 June to 1 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 June to 20 June, 23 June to 27 June, and 28 June to 2 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 June to 10 June, 15 June to 19 June, and 19 June to 23 June.

Issued Jun 1

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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