Fairfax Media Network

Lower South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
13
high
14
med
15
med
16
low
17
18
low
19
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
24
25
26
med
27
low
28
29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 December to 28 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 14 January to 18 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 19 December to 23 December, and 2 January to 6 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 December to 21 December, 24 December to 28 December, and 30 December to 3 January.

Issued Dec 12

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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