|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 May to 22 May, 30 May to 3 June, and 5 June to 9 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 June to 5 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 May to 14 May, 18 May to 22 May, and 5 June to 9 June.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
19:57 EST Just outside Fiji's second biggest city, Lautoka, lies a place known as Koroipita or Peter's village, home to some of the country's poorest people.