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Kangaroo Island 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
23
24
low
25
low
26
med
27
high
28
high
29
high
30
high
31
med
Jun 1
med
2
3
low
4
low
5
med
6
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
low
14
med
15
med
16
high
17
med
18
med
19
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 May to 31 May, 14 June to 18 June, and 24 June to 28 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 May to 1 June, 3 June to 7 June, and 14 June to 18 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 May to 2 June, 14 June to 18 June, and 24 June to 28 June.

Issued May 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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