Fairfax Media Network

Kangaroo Island 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
high
30
Jul 1
2
med
3
high
4
high
5
med
6
med
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
med
11
high
12
high
13
high
14
high
15
med
16
low
17
med
18
low
19
20
low
21
med
22
med
23
low
24
low
25
med
26
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 July to 16 July, 25 July to 29 July, and 31 July to 4 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 June to 30 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 July to 13 July, 25 July to 29 July, and 1 August to 5 August.

Issued Jun 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Climate scientists reveal their fears for the future

09:10 EST

Cradling her newborn baby girl, heatwave expert Sarah Perkins Kirkpatrick admits to feeling torn between the joy of motherhood and anxiety over her first-born child's future.

Farming under the Basin Plan in the Riverina: irrigators face the future

07:36 EST

It's lunchtime in Griffith, the unofficial capital of the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area in the heart of the NSW Riverina.

Dry fronts equating to frosty nights

15:03 EST

This winter so far has been one of dry fronts for southeastern Australia, bringing little rain and priming the air for frosty nights to follow.