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Flinders 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
28
29
30
Jul 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
low
9
10
11
12
low
13
14
15
16
low
17
18
low
19
20
21
22
low
23
low
24
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 July to 6 July, 14 July to 18 July, and 26 July to 30 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 July to 10 July, 15 July to 19 July, and 19 July to 23 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 July to 7 July, 10 July to 14 July, and 15 July to 19 July.

Issued Jun 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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