Flinders 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 March to 30 March, 1 April to 5 April, and 13 April to 17 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 April to 9 April, and 21 April to 25 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 March to 30 March, 1 April to 5 April, and 13 April to 17 April.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
It was a golden end to a stormy afternoon in many parts of Australia yesterday as the setting sun painted the sky orange.
Thousands of homes and businesses in Sydney's west will remain without power overnight, following a severe thunderstorm which brought heavy rainfall and damaging winds.
It was a golden end to a stormy afternoon in many parts of Australia as the setting sun painted the sky orange.