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Eastern Eyre Peninsula 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
low
12
13
14
15
low
16
17
low
18
low
19
low
20
low
21
med
22
low
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
27
28
29
30
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 October to 18 October, 20 October to 24 October, and 4 November to 8 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 October to 10 October, and 16 October to 20 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 October to 18 October, 28 October to 1 November, and 3 November to 7 November.

Issued Oct 1

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Tasmania could get above average rainfall according to the weather bureau

ABC image 17:34 EST The weather bureau's long-term forecast is predicting a drier than normal October to December for much of eastern Australia and north-west Western Australia.

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