|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 August to 20 August, 20 August to 24 August, and 24 August to 28 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 August to 10 August, 10 August to 14 August, and 22 August to 26 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 August to 16 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 23 August to 27 August.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
17:44 EST Tasmanians are bracing for more wild weather as the state mops up from destructive storms and flash flooding in the past two days.