|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 31 December to 4 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 December to 17 December, 24 December to 28 December, and 9 January to 13 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 December to 18 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 26 December to 30 December.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
21:13 EDT The Primary Industries Minister, Bryan Green, has promised farmers he is close to signing the Federal Government's farm finance package.