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Peninsula 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
15
med
16
low
17
low
18
med
19
med
20
med
21
high
22
med
23
high
24
high
25
high
26
med
27
high
28
med
29
med
30
low
31
low
Jan 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
high
5
med
6
low
7
med
8
high
9
med
10
low
11
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 December to 26 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 15 January to 19 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 December to 24 December, 24 December to 28 December, and 31 December to 4 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 December to 23 December, and 29 December to 2 January.

Issued Dec 14

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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