Fairfax Media Network

Peninsula 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
26
low
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
31
Aug 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
low
16
17
low
18
med
19
med
20
low
21
low
22
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 July to 3 August, 24 August to 28 August, and 28 August to 1 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 August to 25 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 July to 3 August, 7 August to 11 August, and 25 August to 29 August.

Issued Jul 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Adelaide weather: Houses damaged by wild winds, Seaford train services cancelled

21:37 EST

High winds described by the State Emergency Service as a "storm cell" have ripped through Somerton Park in Adelaide, damaging roofs and bringing down trees.

Melbourne cold front brings rain, high winds, Bureau of Meteorology says

19:56 EST

A "fairly active" cold front has caused problems on the road during Melbourne's evening peak hour, as high winds and rain hit the city.

Rare 'morning glory' roll cloud sighting in outback Queensland

18:26 EST

A rare cloud formation, often called the morning glory, has rolled across outback Queensland delighting locals.