Peninsula 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
20
21
low
22
low
23
med
24
high
25
high
26
med
27
low
28
med
Mar 1
med
2
low
3
4
med
5
low
6
med
7
low
8
med
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
14
low
15
med
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 February to 28 February, 2 March to 6 March, and 14 March to 18 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 March to 9 March, and 22 March to 26 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 February to 28 February, 2 March to 6 March, and 12 March to 16 March.

Issued Feb 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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