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Nth Cst & Tableland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
high
25
med
26
low
27
high
28
high
Mar 1
high
2
high
3
high
4
high
5
med
6
med
7
med
8
low
9
10
11
low
12
low
13
med
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
high
18
med
19
med
20
low
21
med
22
low
23
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 March to 9 March, 18 March to 22 March, and 22 March to 26 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 February to 24 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 March to 10 March, 18 March to 22 March, and 24 March to 28 March.

Issued Feb 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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