Nth Cst & Tableland 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 October to 16 October, 17 October to 21 October, and 25 October to 29 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 November to 10 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 October to 16 October, 26 October to 30 October, and 3 November to 7 November.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Early hot and windy conditions in the Victorian Mallee region are taking their toll on cereal crops.
A wool classer who spent 50 years in shearing sheds around western Queensland says there has been a slow decline in the industry since he started.
Melbourne is enduring record heat, but this afternoon those only in t-shirts will feel the chill.