Northwest 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 July to 19 July, 24 July to 28 July, and 2 August to 6 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 3 August to 7 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 July to 11 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 30 July to 3 August.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
A gusty cold front has brought gusty winds and showers to southern SA, western VIC and southern NSW.
Northern Australia has an above average chance of experiencing an early start to the wet season according to data released today by the Bureau of Meteorology.
It's going to be a mixed bag of weather around the country on Saturday as voters head out to decide who next we can make fun of in cartoons, watch being interviewed on a brisk dawn walk, or hear them say 'jobs and growth' again and again.