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Maranoa 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
med
20
med
21
med
22
low
23
24
25
low
26
low
27
low
28
low
29
30
Dec 1
2
3
low
4
5
6
low
7
8
9
10
low
11
12
low
13
low
14
15
16
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 November to 29 November, 30 November to 4 December, and 7 December to 11 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, 4 December to 8 December, and 13 December to 17 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 November to 29 November, 11 December to 15 December, and 18 December to 22 December.

Issued Nov 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Heavy rain pummels NSW and QLD

12:43 EDT

Saturday night turned into a real soaker for parts of Queensland and New South Wales, as a low pressure trough moved through.

Foggy start for the southeast

12:35 EDT

Parts of the southeast awoke to thick fog on Sunday morning with visibility dropping below 100 metres in some places.

Severe thunderstorms bring damaging winds and large hail to south-east Queensland

00:38 EDT

A "very dangerous" thunderstorm packing giant hail and destructive winds tore through parts of south-east Queensland on Saturday evening, damaging homes and bringing down trees and powerlines.