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Home › 28-day Rainfall Forecast › Lower Burdekin Rainfall Forecast

Lower Burdekin 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
20
21
22
med
23
low
24
med
25
26
med
27
28
29
30
31
low
Jun 1
low
2
3
4
5
low
6
7
8
9
10
11
low
12
low
13
med
14
15
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 1 June to 5 June, 5 June to 9 June, and 15 June to 19 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 May to 1 June, and 13 June to 17 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 June to 5 June, 5 June to 9 June, and 13 June to 17 June.

Issued May 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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