Lower Burdekin 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 August to 10 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 21 August to 25 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 July to 30 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 August to 10 August, 12 August to 16 August, and 16 August to 20 August.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
Visitors can again make it through to the Australian Age of Dinosaurs Museum in outback Queensland after floodwaters forced the iconic attraction to shut up shop for two weeks.
From severe weather in the south to drought in the north, there are plenty of farming families in need of support.
While a wet and stormy winter has many South Australians counting the days until summer, flooding at Langhorne Creek south of Adelaide has grape growers smiling.