Lower Burdekin 28-day Rainfall Forecast

period
28-day
12-month

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

22
high

23
high

24
high

25
high

26
high

27
high

28
high

29
high

30
high

31
high

Apr 1
high

2
low

6
low

7
high

8
high

9
high

10
med

11
high

12
high

13
high

14
high

15
med

16
med

17
low

Chance of rainfall within district
nil < 25%	low 25% to 50%	med 50% to 75%	high ≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 April to 18 April, 18 April to 22 April, and 23 April to 27 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 April to 14 April, and 21 April to 25 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 April to 17 April, 17 April to 21 April, and 22 April to 26 April.

Issued Mar 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.