Fairfax Media Network

Gulf Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
11
low
12
med
13
med
14
high
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
low
19
20
21
22
low
23
low
24
med
25
low
26
med
27
med
28
low
29
low
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
4
5
6
med
7
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 7 January to 11 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 December to 21 December, and 21 December to 25 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December.

Issued Dec 10

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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