Gulf Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 September to 4 October, 24 October to 28 October, and 28 October to 1 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 October to 6 October, and 13 October to 17 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 September to 4 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 24 October to 28 October.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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An evacuation order has been issued for residents of Forbes in central-western New South Wales, but the State Emergency Service (SES) is concerned some people are choosing to leave their homes late.
Residents of Forbes have been packing up and leaving their homes, in what for some is an eerily familiar situation.