Channel Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast
|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 July to 14 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 27 July to 31 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 July to 16 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 July to 13 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 24 July to 28 July.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
School students across New South Wales are no doubt carefully planning their activities this fortnight to maximise their school holiday fun.
Voters were rugging up as they went to the polls this morning, with below freezing temperatures recorded around the country.
The drenching monsoon downpours are essential to life in India, bringing with them an end to the dry heat and much-needed rainfall for farmers.