|Chance of rainfall within district|
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are eight main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 June to 10 June, 19 June to 23 June, and 24 June to 28 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 May to 3 June, and 11 June to 15 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 June to 14 June, 19 June to 23 June, and 24 June to 28 June.
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
12:54 EST Southern New South Wales and the ACT had a chilly start to the weekend, with some places seeing their coldest May night in half a decade.