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Central West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
med
29
low
30
low
Dec 1
med
2
low
3
med
4
low
5
low
6
med
7
med
8
9
10
11
low
12
low
13
low
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 December to 7 December, 11 December to 15 December, and 20 December to 24 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 December to 5 December, 5 December to 9 December, and 9 December to 13 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 December to 6 December, 11 December to 15 December, and 21 December to 25 December.

Issued Nov 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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